Mechanical Trading Systems – Earik Beann
Mechanical Trading Systems from Earik Beann Harness the Power of Mechanical Trading Systems …and supercharge your trading by automating it!
Mechanical trading systems are one of the greatest developments in the history of trading. Turn them on, connect them to your broker, and they will trade for you. However, developing a good mechanical system is not always so easy, especially if you aren’t aware of the many pitfalls involved. Although Earik is best known for some of his discretionary approaches, he got his start building automated trading systems long before Wave59 even existed. From his days trading Treasury Bonds systems at the CBOT, through his work setting up a private fund to trade the ES, he has over twenty years of testing, tweaking, and innovating mechanical systems to trade financial markets.This course is all about mechanical trading systems. How to evaluate them, how to build them, and how to trade them. But in typical Wave59 fashion, we’re going to go about doing that a little differently.
Unlike every other systems book in existence, you’ll learn by taking apart actual, working systems that Earik has used in live markets throughout the years. These are not dumbed-down, for-example-only systems, but real life, actual trading methods that you can take today and implement in your own trading. Everything is completely revealed, including QScript source code, so if you want to just skip the book and trade the systems, go for it. You can find the scripts in the appendix.This is the biggest book we’ve ever published and it is crammed full of system ideas and techniques, as well as fully working systems. A brief summary of the table of contents is shown below.
Chapter 1: Introduction
Discusses the pros and cons of system trading when compared to discretionary trading. Systems have some distinct advantages. Specifically, they avoid a lot of issues of stress and psychology that plague discretionary traders, they can implement techniques too complicated for humans to master, and they can easily be leveraged up to turn small accounts into incredibly massive ones. Best of all, they can do all of that without needing human interaction, which makes them ideal for people who have better things to do during the day than stare at price charts.
Chapter 2: The System Report Explained
Good and bad trading systems both have very distinct ways of telling you whether or not they will continue to work when moving forward into the future. After working through this chapter, you will understand the basics of how to go about evaluating a system, and will gain experience by using these methods as we take apart and discuss good (and bad!) systems working forward through the book.
Chapter 3: William Tell Bonds
This system was developed all the way back in 1997, and was actively used not only in Earik’s personal accounts, but also in the accounts of his partners when he worked at the Board of Trade. In the years when it was actively traded, this system crushed the Bond market with accuracy approaching 90%. Although it is now an old system, and Bond futures have changed significantly in the last 16 years, the core ideas behind this method continue to be valid, and if accuracy is your cup of tea, you will be hard pressed to find anything that can hold a candle to this.
To give you a taste, here’s the system report from just one of the nineteen individual patterns that go into this method:
Notice the accuracy number. Over 91% of the trades were winners, with the worst losing streak ever being a set of two losses in a row. This system report has been run from 1990 through 2013, and this pattern continues to crank away as it has been for the last 16 years running on live data.
All systems can be made to be extremely accurate, and after reading through the William Tell chapter, you’ll know exactly how to build 70%, 80%, and even 90% accurate systems. The methods that result in this level of accuracy are universal, so if you already have a system you like, odds are you can transform it into a hyper-accurate system as well, simply by adding a few changes to the way you enter and exit your trades.
Chapter 4: The Fallacy of Optimization
In this chapter, we’ll take a look at parameter migration, where an optimized parameter set works one year, but then fails the next. This phenomena of markets is the main reason why so many systems found for sale in the classified ads in the back of trading magazines fail to ever earn a dollar of profits when traded live. If you’ve ever purchased one of those methods, you know what I’m talking about!
Not only will we cover what the issues are that cause parameter migration, but we’ll also discuss the solution. To prove that our solution works, we’ll actually build a system that makes simple moving average crossovers profitable! Yes, moving average crossovers can be made to make money when traded in out-of-sample data, but only if you can solve the issue of parameter migration. Un
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